Monetary & liquidity — Fed balance sheet, M2 growth
Credit & stress — HY/IG spreads, credit health
Volatility structure — VIX level, term slope, VVIX
Breadth & participation — stocks above 200d MA, sector breadth
Positioning & sentiment — put/call ratio (contrarian)
HY spreads below this = maximum credit health
HY spreads above this = maximum credit stress
VIX below this scores maximum calm
VIX above this scores maximum stress
VIX3M minus VIX below this = backwardation (crisis signal)
% stocks above 200d MA above this = strong breadth
% stocks above 200d MA below this = weak breadth
Sectors green above this = strong breadth (0-11)
Composite score above this triggers bull classification
Composite score below this triggers bear classification
Layer agreement below this triggers Chop (0.0–1.0)